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In Today’s Issue:
🛋️ OpenAI is stepping out of the browser and into your living room with a highly anticipated smart device.
💸 The AI giant is projecting record-breaking revenue while simultaneously bracing for a staggering $111 billion cash burn
🚨 Bernie Sanders is warning Congress that the unchecked AI revolution could unleash a tsunami of job losses
🔮 A viral financial memo outlines a chilling 2028 crisis scenario where runaway AI success hollows out the consumer economy
✨ And more AI goodness…
Dear Readers,
The scariest AI scenario isn't failure, it's success. A new research memo making the rounds on finance Twitter maps out how runaway AI efficiency could hollow out the consumer economy from the inside, creating what the authors call "Ghost GDP", output that never reaches real wallets. It's a provocative thought experiment, and it sets the tone for today's issue: OpenAI is simultaneously projecting $62B in 2027 revenue and expecting to burn $111B more than planned through the decade, while its $500B Stargate data center venture hits serious turbulence.
Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders is sounding the alarm on Capitol Hill, calling AI a "tsunami" for jobs and democracy after back-to-back meetings with Silicon Valley's biggest names. Add in OpenAI's push into AI hardware with a Jony Ive-designed smart speaker, Demis Hassabis sharing his vision for AGI, and a chart that might change how you think about AI progress, and you've got an issue worth reading to the very last line.
All the best,
🤖 OpenAI Enters AI Hardware
OpenAI is building a 200-person hardware division to launch a $200–$300 AI-powered smart speaker, expected no earlier than February 2027, with future plans for smart glasses and even a smart lamp. Designed in collaboration with Jony Ive’s LoveFrom, the camera-equipped device could observe its surroundings, enable facial-recognition purchases, and proactively “nudge” users toward better decisions, positioning OpenAI in direct competition with Apple, Meta, and Google. With internal tensions, ambitious timelines, and a crowded AI device race, OpenAI is betting big that AI-native hardware will redefine how people interact with technology.
🚀 OpenAI Bets Big Despite Burn
OpenAI has raised its revenue forecast by 27%, projecting $30B in 2026 and $62B in 2027 after tripling revenue to $13.1B last year, fueled by explosive growth from ChatGPT subscriptions, enterprise AI, and new ads and hardware bets. Weekly active users hit 910M (still shy of its 1B goal), while enterprise revenue is set to more than triple to $8B this year as OpenAI pushes deeper into corporate AI tools.
But the cost of dominance is massive: the company now expects to burn $111B more than previously forecast through 2030, with training and inference costs alone nearing $440B over the decade. Even with $40B in cash and talks for a $100B+ raise at a $730B valuation, margins have slipped to 33%, underscoring the brutal economics of AI scale, yet OpenAI still aims to turn cash-flow positive by 2030.
🤖 Sanders Sounds AI Alarm
After meetings with top Silicon Valley leaders, Bernie Sanders and Ro Khanna warned that Congress is dangerously unprepared for the speed and scale of the AI revolution, calling it a potential “tsunami” for jobs and democracy. Sanders is pushing for a moratorium on AI data center expansion, citing projections of tens of millions of jobs at risk and a 2025 Pew survey showing 64% of Americans fear job losses, while just 17% see AI as net positive. The big question now: will AI enrich a handful of billionaires, or be steered to benefit the broader public?
Demis Hassabis On AGI, Advice For Indian Engineers, AI In Gaming & More
AI Crisis Scenario 2028
The Takeaway
👉 Citrini Research's fictional 2028 memo maps a scenario where AI success, not failure, triggers an economic crisis through mass white-collar displacement, collapsing consumer spending, and a broken feedback loop between productivity and demand.
👉 The most actionable insight: AI doesn't need to actually replace enterprise software to disrupt SaaS margins, the mere perception that it can is already shifting procurement negotiations and compressing pricing power across the sector.
👉 Private credit markets, built on assumptions of perpetual SaaS revenue growth, and the $13 trillion mortgage market, built on stable white-collar incomes, are identified as the two largest systemic vulnerabilities if AI-driven displacement accelerates.
👉 Whether the scenario materializes or not, investors and builders should stress-test their portfolios and business models against the core question: what happens when human intelligence is no longer the scarce input in the economy?
A speculative research memo is sending shockwaves through finance Twitter, and it doesn't predict AI will fail. It predicts AI will succeed. That's the scary part.
Citrini Research, a well-known financial newsletter, just published a bold thought experiment: a fictional macro memo dated June 2028, describing how runaway AI success triggers a full-blown economic crisis. The scenario plays out like this: agentic AI tools get so good that companies slash white-collar jobs, margins expand, and stocks rally. But the workers who got replaced stop spending. The consumer economy, which makes up 70% of U.S. GDP, starts to wither. The authors call it "Ghost GDP", output that shows up in the national accounts but never circulates through the real economy.
The piece traces a chilling feedback loop: AI improves, companies cut headcount, and savings get reinvested into more AI, which improves again. There is no natural brake. SaaS pricing collapses, agentic commerce kills intermediation businesses, and eventually, the $13 trillion mortgage market starts cracking as white-collar incomes evaporate. The S&P drops 38% from its highs in this scenario.
The piece has already sparked intense debate. A Big Tech insider from a Mag7 company pointed out that current AI capabilities are far from the hype, but added that it doesn't matter if AI can actually replace SaaS, as long as procurement teams believe it can. That perception alone is already reshaping negotiations.
The real value here isn't prophecy: it's preparation. Whether you think this scenario is likely or not, mapping these feedback loops now gives investors and builders time to stress-test their assumptions before they're forced to.
Why it matters: This thought experiment forces the AI community to confront an uncomfortable paradox: that AI success could destabilize the very economy it's supposed to supercharge. Understanding these feedback loops now, while markets are calm, is the best insurance against being blindsided later.
Sources:
🔗 https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic
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OpenAI’s Compute Crunch Intensifies
OpenAI’s ambitious $500 billion Stargate data center venture with Oracle and SoftBank stalled after internal disagreements and leadership gaps, forcing the AI giant to rethink its infrastructure strategy. After missing its 10 GW capacity target for 2025 and raising its projected compute spend from $450 billion to a staggering $665 billion through 2030, OpenAI pivoted to cloud-heavy partnerships instead of owning massive campuses outright.
Now, instead of self-building, OpenAI is structuring risk-sharing deals, like its 4.5 GW agreement with Oracle and a Texas campus partnership with SoftBank, giving it design control without crushing its balance sheet. The scramble underscores one reality: in the AI race against rivals like Google and Anthropic, compute is king, and securing it may cost more than anyone expected.
This could be a huge opportunity for the competition to catch up. OpenAI has given them carte blanche to catch up now and increase distribution by expanding their data centers.
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